Who knows? With $52 million in assets, average losses of -23.24% since inception, and underperforming QQQ by -54% in 2023, a plausible bad scenario is that keeps losing money, suffers outflows, gets too small to sustain, and get liquidated at a loss. Since it has lagged QQQ by around 40-50% both in 2023 and since inception, if QQQ has a bad year a -50% loss for D.XYZ is well within the range of possibility and not even close to a "worst case scenario."What’s the best and worst case scenario with this fund long term?
Best case, I find from the first Google hit I tried that only 12% of IPOs are "multibaggers," with returns of over 100%. It seems to me that even if the fund manages to turn in a positive return, even if they find, let's say five of them that double, and one ten-bagger, then even if the other 95 do not lose money, that's only 95 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 10 = 113, a +13% return for the whole portfolio. Someone who knows more can refine this, but it doesn't look to me as if it has astronomical upside potential.
Statistics: Posted by nisiprius — Fri May 10, 2024 8:49 am — Replies 9 — Views 780