Quantcast
Channel: Bogleheads.org
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 7834

Investing - Theory, News & General • Shiller PE now near 39 - 2nd highest ever

$
0
0


If you have to make unsupported claims with a pejorative tone, then you've already lost.
Seriously.

VBR (blue circle):
Image

M* has even characterized VBR as a midcap ETF in the past:
Image

AVUV:
Image

PS: I very much want Advantis to come out with a deep value microcap ETF as a complement to AVUV.
Here's DFAT

Image

Looks pretty smally and valuey to me, better than VBR, right?

DFAT 5-year returns were 12.38% a year
VBR 5-year returns were 11.21% a year

AVUV 5-year returns were 15.47% a year. It's an obvious outlier.

VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) returns were 14.91% a year.

Not really fair to claim that small-value beat Total Market over the past 5 years, just because one active fund did it.

And here's the real problem... AVUV has only existed for 5 years. So one would have had to invest in it BEFORE it had a track record, or a solid morningstar chart.

Again, I could just list the hottest active fund for ANY category that has only been around for 5 years, and say "Hey look, it beat the index! You all should have invested in this fund on day 1 when it was brand-new, five years ago".

But that's not realistic.

And it's not a good way to invest. There's always some new active fund that has the best 5-year record. They don't usually have the best record over the next 5 years. It doesn't really prove anything to point to a hot new fund.

All I'm saying is that it's not easy to pick the next 5-year winner - you can't just look at morningstar charts or ratings or past performance.
DFAT has less of a tilt to value than AVUV according to M* but I agree with you that AVUV is somewhat different, likely due to their profitability screen. For example AVUV has greatly outperformed DFSVX despite having a similar small value tilt:
Image

Statistics: Posted by prioritarian — Tue Dec 17, 2024 12:26 pm — Replies 823 — Views 65351



Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 7834

Trending Articles



<script src="https://jsc.adskeeper.com/r/s/rssing.com.1596347.js" async> </script>