McQ, I've yet to read your 29-pages paper. Some answers could probably be found in it. But, as you've graciously offered to answer queries, here I go.
For examples, some people use a published 10-year yield for year [X] along with a 10-year yield for year [X + 1] to derive a return for a 10-year bond bought in year [X], due to the unavailability of a published 9-year yield for year [X + 1]. In this situation, the 9-year yield is approximated using a 10-year yield instead. How, exactly, are returns derived in your paper?
Finally, do you happen to have an open spreadsheet with all the inputs (yields, prices, etc.) and the formulas used to derive outputs (which are the returns for various series included in your paper)?
How close or far are the observations in general? Weeks, months, or years apart? What are the resulting challenges, for calculating accurate time-weighted returns?1. Some of the 8 series are based on observed returns: long corporate, long Treasuries, short intermediate Treasuries, long intermediate Treasuries (these last two merged before the early 1930s, there weren't enough). "Observed" means price at time1, price time2, coupon, annual frequency, large sample of the largest bonds (corporate).
Are exact (published) buy and sell yields used to calculate returns, or are some yields approximated and, if so, how (linear, other)?2. Intermediate Corporate, short and long, come from yield interpolation. No allowance for defaults and downgrades in the 1930s (long corporates do reflect these events). Based on Durand (1942), a key cite: https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapt ... /c9269.pdf
For examples, some people use a published 10-year yield for year [X] along with a 10-year yield for year [X + 1] to derive a return for a 10-year bond bought in year [X], due to the unavailability of a published 9-year yield for year [X + 1]. In this situation, the 9-year yield is approximated using a 10-year yield instead. How, exactly, are returns derived in your paper?
Did you compare returns derived using your methodology (1 & 2 & 3 of your post + equal weighting) with the returns of VBMFX for the period from 1987 (first full year of VBMFX) until 2020 (as your paper was published in 2021)? How close or far are the results?Last, equal weighting is probably false: long bonds dominated until well after WW II.
Finally, do you happen to have an open spreadsheet with all the inputs (yields, prices, etc.) and the formulas used to derive outputs (which are the returns for various series included in your paper)?
Statistics: Posted by longinvest — Fri Jan 10, 2025 5:15 pm — Replies 6 — Views 105