Big problem with discussions like these is the probabilities of losing your health and dying are often forgotten. Seems like all we think about is our portfolio and it lasting to 100. Most of us will not make it to 100 and most of us will lose our health and quality of life long before that. Probably more important to consider than the “number” or probability of portfolio failure. Probability of losing your health and dying is 100%It's funny reading these. Huge variance in numbers. What's funny is people are like "I need X to retire, which I should have <around the age of 60 or so>". People are backing into how much they need based on how much they think they will have at 60.
I think that in a group like this the biggest likelihood is retiring too late. I do not plan on waiting until all the numbers are perfect and buttoned up and all is perfect. Each year from here on my health is expected to be worse (I'm not in bad health now so it's not like I can have some unlikely notion of retiring and then getting ultra fit).
My grand parents all lived a long time. So far the next gen are dying out a full decade earlier. My pretty well off parents got ten years of retirement, the last five taken up by health, and then my father expired wealthier than when he started. He also hated work; simply, he waited too damn long. I just had a seemingly very healthy aunt die at 74, an uncle go around 70 a couple years ago. All of these people died with tons of assets.
Hitting old age and grinding out an existence because you blew it all would suck but i'll be damned if I'm going to hold on an extra five years of the best healthy years of my life on the slim-to-no chance I need money at the age of 90.
So back to the question, I think I am targeting a net worth of perhaps $3M or maybe $4M if I'm lucky, in today's dollars, by my late 50's and then I'm calling it. It could be earlier. if i get canned in my 50's the odds of replacing my employment are not high.
Statistics: Posted by am — Wed Sep 10, 2025 11:49 am — Replies 377 — Views 67845