There is now an ETF which is the SP500 minus the Mag 7. XMAGYou might the most crude & simple metric is price deviations from trend.If you were to disregard the Bogleheads' philosophical disregard for market timing and all the rest, what would you say are your top 3 metrics for measuring how overpriced relative to the fundamental fair value the broad U.S. stock market is at any point in time and why?
US market looks particularly bad in that context.
See (David Rubenstein's) Net Interest site & newsletter for that. He covered investment banks during 2008 Crash so he has a history in this.
Maybe Ed Yardeni's charts as well.
When earnings trend of Mag 7 has clearly broken this market will break.
I believe other 493 stocks in SP500 have net earnings growth close to 0?
Since XMag started one year ago the CAGR is 17.68% for the SP500 and XMAG without those is 11.44%. Not as unbalanced as is sometimes claimed.
P/E (TTM) is 28.83 for the SP500 and for XMAG 25.32. The market cap overlap of the two groups is 64%. Yes that only 7 companies account for 36% of the market cap is rather extreme, but not so much so the other 493 are doing nothing.
Statistics: Posted by B88 — Sun Nov 02, 2025 9:44 pm — Replies 28 — Views 2868