Does the book cover periods of financial repression where bonds yields were kept lower than the rate of inflation?Being conservative is not irrational at all. I am in my 30’s and am 100% in fixed income as of this year. My investment strategy is based on capital preservation and cash flow from bonds. I still have a financial plan that allows me to meet my goals with this plan.
If you move to 60/40, consider that in a 50% downturn similar to 2008 or 2020 you would lose 30% of your portfolio. If this isn’t something you can stomach, then stay where you are.
Consider reading the book “Bonds: The Unbeaten Path for Secure Investment Growth” by Stan and Hildy Richelson. It is a contrarian perspective, but a great resource for conservative investors who are more focused on preserving what they have and generating returns on it. Equity investing simply isn’t for everybody.
Look at this chart
https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1848437649943761299
What happens if the US enters a period of high inflation and bond yields (esp after tax for taxable accounts) is not keeping up with inflation? And then there's CPI inflation vs inflation as you (or I) experience it. I found that TIPS didn't keep up with my inflation between 2019 and 2024. This was in a Roth account. Things would be even worse if it was in taxable.
I've been mostly fixed income all along. I was influenced by the work of Zvi Bodie.
https://zvibodie.com/book/worry-free-investing/
But we are in a weird state where the fed and the govt seem to think asset prices (esp stocks) must be supported. It's sort of the tail (stock market) wagging the dog (real economy) instead of the other way around.
Before we went to ZIRP, pension funds mostly invested in bonds. Now they are mostly in stocks and even private equity (which is even riskier than stocks).
Just some things for you to think about since you are still very young.
This is another chart worth looking at.
https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1992232996662030788
Here we see how deeply negative Japan's real interest rate is. They are basically sacrificing bond holders. Their stock market meanwhile is near all time highs. It's often said the US follows Japan.
Statistics: Posted by anoop — Sun Nov 23, 2025 12:28 am — Replies 64 — Views 6739