I think 3% is right, although if we're going to nitpick I think it is actually 3.0126%. It should, indeed, be a smidge higher than the Social Security COLA.
At some point, I determined by careful reverse engineering, I determined that their adjustment is based on CPI-U from September to September... in other words, they use same time period as the Social Security COLA adjustment, but they use the CPI-U index rather than Social Security's CPI-W.
The CPI-U numbers are available directly from BLS, and the easiest way to find them seems to be to perform a web search on the series ID,
CUUR0000SA0
With a shock, I see that there's of course a GAP for October, 2025, but fortunately we don't need it.
They even give you a little chart and the ability to download directly in XLS format, and you can go all the way back to the start of the price index in 1913 with a little pop-up menu.
Anyway,
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We need 324.800/315.301 = 1.030126 = 3.0126%.
So, yeah, "almost exactly 3%" is right. I haven't calculated what my own adjustment was yet, that's a real pain in the neck for me because I have tax withheld and they don't give me any monthly statement at all--neither paper nor online--that would show the amounts before taxes.
At some point, I determined by careful reverse engineering, I determined that their adjustment is based on CPI-U from September to September... in other words, they use same time period as the Social Security COLA adjustment, but they use the CPI-U index rather than Social Security's CPI-W.
The CPI-U numbers are available directly from BLS, and the easiest way to find them seems to be to perform a web search on the series ID,
CUUR0000SA0
With a shock, I see that there's of course a GAP for October, 2025, but fortunately we don't need it.
They even give you a little chart and the ability to download directly in XLS format, and you can go all the way back to the start of the price index in 1913 with a little pop-up menu.
Anyway,

We need 324.800/315.301 = 1.030126 = 3.0126%.
So, yeah, "almost exactly 3%" is right. I haven't calculated what my own adjustment was yet, that's a real pain in the neck for me because I have tax withheld and they don't give me any monthly statement at all--neither paper nor online--that would show the amounts before taxes.
Statistics: Posted by nisiprius — Wed Dec 31, 2025 7:54 am — Replies 281 — Views 30551