Elon said we don’t need any retirement money at allI would argue that if people generally retire when they hit a portfolio number then those people would have to retire at or near market highs.
For the last decade my annual contributions have added a lot less to my net worth than market action. If markets were falling my savings rate would have had to have been huge to make up that decline.
The thing that always gets me with this argument is how anyone could think that 30 year projections are remotely accurate. The only way I could do this is guess that 4% is about right, pull the plug and adjust as needed. A good 2% of that 4% is discretionary. We can skip or downscale a few vacations if need be. Granted, we're lucky.
If AI turns into what the futurists predict, that 4% withdrawal will be way too low and I'll die with money. If AI turns into Skynet then 4% is 3.99% too high and I just need to build a bunker and get some guard dogs.
In my case the idea of working another 3-4 years so I can lower my initial withdrawal rate from 4% to 3% seems like a high cost. Especially since a very likely outcome of that sacrifice (and for me it's a sacrifice) is my lifestyle won't change and my kid will inherit more money.
Statistics: Posted by jebmke — Wed Jan 14, 2026 9:58 am — Replies 452 — Views 32454