I retired early to mid 50's with about a 3% WR. I have a different perspective than most of what I have seen here when it comes to SORR and risk management. You might not agree or feel comfortable with it, but maybe it can give you a different perspective.
I do not believe in bucketing, I think it might make you feel better/safer, but IMO it is a gimmick. I simply assume that the stock market can go down 50% at any given time, and may never recover. So I ask myself at what WR would I not feel comfortable ?
For example, in your position, at 70/30, a 50% equity hit will give you a 4.6% WR.
For a 50/50, that would be a 4.0% WR.
I would not feel comfortable with a 4.6% WR in my 50's. I am ok with 4.0%
What I ended up doing was 45/55 with the intention to hopefully glide upwards, and avoid rebalancing costs. I am now nearing 60/40, have not rebalanced, and because my WR is even lower than when I retired, do not feel the need to rebalance, as a 50% cut on my equity side still gives me a very comfortable WR, and I am also a lot older.
You may ask yourself is 50/50 taking enough risk. Another perspective is that at a 50/50 portfolio, and a 3% WR, you need a 3% return on your bonds and a 9% return return on your equity in order to have a perpetual, inflation adjusted withdrawal (and asset base) if inflation is 3%, which is historical reasonable.
I think it is always good to look at things like this from different perspectives and see how well they correlate to your specific situation.
I do not believe in bucketing, I think it might make you feel better/safer, but IMO it is a gimmick. I simply assume that the stock market can go down 50% at any given time, and may never recover. So I ask myself at what WR would I not feel comfortable ?
For example, in your position, at 70/30, a 50% equity hit will give you a 4.6% WR.
For a 50/50, that would be a 4.0% WR.
I would not feel comfortable with a 4.6% WR in my 50's. I am ok with 4.0%
What I ended up doing was 45/55 with the intention to hopefully glide upwards, and avoid rebalancing costs. I am now nearing 60/40, have not rebalanced, and because my WR is even lower than when I retired, do not feel the need to rebalance, as a 50% cut on my equity side still gives me a very comfortable WR, and I am also a lot older.
You may ask yourself is 50/50 taking enough risk. Another perspective is that at a 50/50 portfolio, and a 3% WR, you need a 3% return on your bonds and a 9% return return on your equity in order to have a perpetual, inflation adjusted withdrawal (and asset base) if inflation is 3%, which is historical reasonable.
I think it is always good to look at things like this from different perspectives and see how well they correlate to your specific situation.
Statistics: Posted by skeptical — Fri Feb 13, 2026 3:19 pm — Replies 19 — Views 1749