None of what I write below should be construed as taking a position, positive or negative, on the tariff policy stance of the current administration. My focus here is just on the market’s response.As measured by the financial markets, the SCOTUS decision was a non-event
The bond market, as measured by TLT, the 20 year treasury ETF, was down 0.23%
The equities market, as measured by VTI the total stock market index was up 0.62%
Typical daily variations unlike the tariff panic of April of last year.
The April tariff panic was a response to new tariffs. It would not be unreasonable to expect stocks to rally on the day at least some if existing some tariffs were shot down, and that is what happened.
VTI and VXUS were down in the morning when the SCOTUS decision was announced, but reversed after that, presumably in response to the decision. VXUS closed at +1.2%.
The decision is unlikely to change current tariff policy, instead just reducing the available mechanisms for implementation. Moreover, based on what I’ve read, only about 50% of current tariff revenue was based on a legal interpretation that was shot down by the SCOTUS. Putting all of that together, I don’t expect a major market impact from the event.
Of course, the market doesn’t care what I think. Time maybe will tell what the full impact is or isn’t. (“Maybe” because it often is not easy to know why the market behaves as it does).
Statistics: Posted by Northern Flicker — Sat Feb 21, 2026 5:10 pm — Replies 2671 — Views 223971