Just crunched the math ... 80% overlay.We will agree to disagree. Some overlay, sure, but still a significant shift.You will notice that the vast majority of the two prediction intervals overlay each other. Not much support for your assertion of a great shift in the intervals.
There is very little value in wide 95% confidence ranges in any case.
You are correct that there is very little value in a hammer if you are trying to drive a screw. If you want CAPE to be more than it is, you will always be disappointment. CAPE can provide one with a statistical inference about what a 10 Year Real return will be and that comes with all the resulting limitations of the math that goes with it. How you judge CAPE's value/performance must be done to a standard that is reflects just exactly what CAPE is. Not what one wishes it was.
Statistics: Posted by IDpilot — Tue Jan 14, 2025 6:15 pm — Replies 1060 — Views 86114