My point is not that the markets are not volatile. US probably has the most volatile in either direction.The is why the stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions*. Right?The US is built on the stock market. It literally affects everyone, directly or indirectly.
More seriously:
- Excluding the pandemic-induced recession of 2020, the correlation between U.S. stock market returns and GDP changes is near zero.
https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/ ... recessions
- In 16 of the 31 recessions that have struck the U.S. since the Civil War, stock-market returns have been positive. In the other 15 instances, returns have been negative.
*Paraphrase of Samuelsen
Nor am I saying that up markets always contribute to higher GDP. I understand the different between stock/finance markets (Wall Street) and Main Street.
I would argue this country will take actions, very severe actions, to improve a very very bad stock market recession. QE/pumping money in etc.
The Fed, imo, has some of the smartest minds around.
I don’t think other countries rely on the stock market as much as the US does. Therefore they care less/do less imo.
Statistics: Posted by Wannaretireearly — Thu Oct 16, 2025 7:43 pm — Replies 350 — Views 35829