Is this really market timing? Bond yield to maturity (less fees and expected losses from defaults) is fairly predictive of what the actual future return will be, plus or minus the impact of future interest rate changes.Huge market timer when it comes to bonds. I've gone from virtually no FI to 40% in the past couple of years, mostly due to the improved yields.
Is avoiding or reducing exposure to fixed income as an asset class during times when the current yield to maturity indicates you would be locking in bad expected returns "market timing"? Isn't that merely making fairly rational asset allocation decisions based on expected returns, without any attempt to pretend one can accurately predict stuff that is very difficult to predict (future changes in interest rate policy)?
Statistics: Posted by pseudoiterative — Mon Oct 20, 2025 8:09 pm — Replies 41 — Views 1874