I did my own simulations using a 60/40 allocation over different time periods. I had results similar to what the article linked above came to. Nor is doing it over less than 6 months likely to make you much more comfortable than a lump sum. What I did was tried to find places where DCA made the best difference vs lump summing. Finding such situations where DCA was a good alternative over 18 months seemed not to exist and yes few over 12 months would be better than lump summing either.
Now lump sum is the way to go something like 75% of the time. Even when it isn't you don't suffer that much in the long term. A long term perspective helps. I knew all of this when I got into the market over a short term period of time. I just could not comfortably put it all in at once. I knew it was the way to go, but could not pull the trigger. So I decided to DCA over 12 months time. Things went inexorably upward and each month I paid a higher share price than the one before with only two exceptions. Lump sum would have been better. But I was comfortable, and my cost basis for the average I paid was a fair bit below the market pricing at the end of the 12 months. So logically lump sum is the way to go. But if it means you never do it at all (I don't think I would have otherwise) DCA works too. One of those rare cases where you win either way. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good enough.
This is a good article too. Looks at how a hypothetical investor named Bob fairs over time if he invested at the very worst times. Should provide one with some comfort.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/
Now lump sum is the way to go something like 75% of the time. Even when it isn't you don't suffer that much in the long term. A long term perspective helps. I knew all of this when I got into the market over a short term period of time. I just could not comfortably put it all in at once. I knew it was the way to go, but could not pull the trigger. So I decided to DCA over 12 months time. Things went inexorably upward and each month I paid a higher share price than the one before with only two exceptions. Lump sum would have been better. But I was comfortable, and my cost basis for the average I paid was a fair bit below the market pricing at the end of the 12 months. So logically lump sum is the way to go. But if it means you never do it at all (I don't think I would have otherwise) DCA works too. One of those rare cases where you win either way. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good enough.
This is a good article too. Looks at how a hypothetical investor named Bob fairs over time if he invested at the very worst times. Should provide one with some comfort.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/0 ... ket-timer/
Statistics: Posted by B88 — Sun Nov 02, 2025 9:15 pm — Replies 13 — Views 1095