I've been unable to work for a few months, and have been selling my bonds and cash-equivalent to pay expenses (good thing I expected this kind of breakdown in advance).
I'm starting a new job at a hardware startup that does AI. If the bubble pops I'll probably need to find a job again as investments into AI will dry up. The company is planning a high burn rate and will probably require periodic funding rounds to continue development. And if we get sold to Nvidia or something I might be holding their stock (possibly with a lockdown period?).
Perhaps I'm overestimating the correlation - I worked at a startup during the GFC and kept my job. If the bubble pops, the company will still have whatever funds they have, and perhaps a product that makes AI cheaper will be even more lucrative an investment.
Anyway, my thinking was to buy puts on the AI companies (will I aim at our "competitors"? Or our "clients"? Not sure) so that if the company fails due to a bubble pop (as opposed to failing for other reasons), I'll have some capital gains to fund expenses until I find a new job.
Another way to put it is that by working there (and getting equity), I'm even more exposed to Nvidia than through my VT holding. I can hedge that with puts.
I'm starting a new job at a hardware startup that does AI. If the bubble pops I'll probably need to find a job again as investments into AI will dry up. The company is planning a high burn rate and will probably require periodic funding rounds to continue development. And if we get sold to Nvidia or something I might be holding their stock (possibly with a lockdown period?).
Perhaps I'm overestimating the correlation - I worked at a startup during the GFC and kept my job. If the bubble pops, the company will still have whatever funds they have, and perhaps a product that makes AI cheaper will be even more lucrative an investment.
Anyway, my thinking was to buy puts on the AI companies (will I aim at our "competitors"? Or our "clients"? Not sure) so that if the company fails due to a bubble pop (as opposed to failing for other reasons), I'll have some capital gains to fund expenses until I find a new job.
Another way to put it is that by working there (and getting equity), I'm even more exposed to Nvidia than through my VT holding. I can hedge that with puts.
Statistics: Posted by latetodinner — Mon Dec 01, 2025 1:13 am — Replies 0 — Views 105