Once again we miss the most important thing, which is portfolio size. Smaller portfolios have much more risk because of sequence of return than larger portfolios.
I will postulate something more like having more than N years of expenses with N years remaining with the assumption that the amount of stocks and bonds makes sense on a purely risk-basis. Feel free to make it 1.2*N or some other multiple that you like.
You don't know when this will happen if you retire with less than N, like retiring at 25x expenses when you need N=30 years of income. That could happen in year 1 or in year 15, or never if the sequence fails.
I will postulate something more like having more than N years of expenses with N years remaining with the assumption that the amount of stocks and bonds makes sense on a purely risk-basis. Feel free to make it 1.2*N or some other multiple that you like.
You don't know when this will happen if you retire with less than N, like retiring at 25x expenses when you need N=30 years of income. That could happen in year 1 or in year 15, or never if the sequence fails.
Statistics: Posted by abc132 — Mon Jan 12, 2026 9:36 am — Replies 32 — Views 3252