Cash has no "yield", so far as I know. It only cheapens, with inflation. So if there's any inflation, your cash is evaporating. It's always losing. Are you thinking of some investment to be made, with the cash? As Baldwin advises? In the article, he cites four risk-reduction strategies that he believes are better than maintaining a "cash bucket". Spoiler alert: they're all four about various bond plays.If we are talking of probability of stocks to be down -10% or -20% in any given 12 month period then its far more frequent than bouts of inflation above Cash yield. That's the only thing we need to know. Cash losing to inflation far less chance than Stocks losing value in any given 12 month. If you argue stocks aren't going to lose then counter is Cash isn't losing to inflation either. Simple."Could have", but generally "don't have", right? To make your argument, you need to find out the average "worse outcome" over time. Positioning yourself solely for black swan events sounds overly conservative even to me.
As I've said, it convinced me, but YMMV.
Statistics: Posted by littlerfish — Fri Jan 16, 2026 10:16 am — Replies 211 — Views 22189