Bill Bernstein predicted calamitous US stock returns based on CAPE10 in Pillars, 1st edition. Should we ignore him?Anyone who attempts to predict the future, as Dalio often does, is not worth listening to, IMO. He frequently spews his "doom and gloom" nonsense which is usually wrong.May I ask why do you feel that Ray Dalio is not relevant?
For example, in 2013, he predicted rising asset prices would cause equity returns to average out at four percent (4%) annually over the next decade and warning of a bleak outlook for equity market investors. But how did the market do in the subsequent ten (10) year period? VTSAX had an average annual return of over fourteen percent (14%). Those who listened to Dalio and changed investments expecting returns better than his predicted four percent (4%) annually didn't fare well at all. The "stay the course" Boglehead investor who left $100k in the market ended that ten (10) year period with over $400k. Compare that to an investor who moved that $100k to a bond fund based upon Dalio's forecast and wound up with just $115k or an investor who moved that $100k into gold and ended up with about $165k. That is just one example of many.
As Jack Bogle said often, "nobody knows nothing." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoGjEbamK9Y
Statistics: Posted by factors_are_cool — Wed Jan 28, 2026 12:17 pm — Replies 64 — Views 1504