You probably have better odds of success than you imagine,
short of WE3 or other catastrophe.
I have a plan which assumes as you did,
25% cut in SS, and
50% drop in US stock market.
I do assume that I will make it another 2 years so that
my SS benefits will be maximized.
I run Monte Carlo analyses, and a simulation using
the historical rolling returns starting at each year from
1926. (I wrap around to 1929 for simulations which start less than 32 years ago.)
The Monte Carlo gave me 98% success without altering lifestyle,
the rolling historical 100% .
short of WE3 or other catastrophe.
I have a plan which assumes as you did,
25% cut in SS, and
50% drop in US stock market.
I do assume that I will make it another 2 years so that
my SS benefits will be maximized.
I run Monte Carlo analyses, and a simulation using
the historical rolling returns starting at each year from
1926. (I wrap around to 1929 for simulations which start less than 32 years ago.)
The Monte Carlo gave me 98% success without altering lifestyle,
the rolling historical 100% .
Statistics: Posted by MathWizard — Mon Feb 02, 2026 1:14 pm — Replies 33 — Views 1635