There are other indicators other than cape ratio above 40. There’s the Buffett indicator at 220-230. There’s sp500 dividend yield at historic lows of 1.1 %. There’s bond market indicators such as the fact that BBB rated bonds have a credit spread of only 0.78 % over treasury bonds. People willing to take on the risk of bonds that are just barely investment grade and just above junk bonds for only 3/4 of a percent above ultra safe treasury bonds?? Excessive risk taking? Credit spreads are extremely tight. When there is going to be a snowstorm, there are more indicators than just “it’s cloudy “. There’s probably more indicators I’m just not thinking of right now.
If I’m only getting a 1.1 % dividend yield from the stock market and it’s highly unlikely to get much more price appreciation adding up to a real return of 0-3 %, why wouldn’t I put most of my money in treasury bonds where I get the same or better returns for incredibly less risk???
If I’m only getting a 1.1 % dividend yield from the stock market and it’s highly unlikely to get much more price appreciation adding up to a real return of 0-3 %, why wouldn’t I put most of my money in treasury bonds where I get the same or better returns for incredibly less risk???
Statistics: Posted by nyejos11 — Sat Feb 14, 2026 3:58 pm — Replies 1411 — Views 247787