One difference to the 1980s/1990s rate cycle and today is federal debt to gdp.Could we get back up to 2.5-3% real yield?
If we're in a multi-decade secular rising rate super cycle, I don't see why not.
We were over 3% real yield 20 years ago.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... tips-yield
It had been reduced from 120% at the end of WW2 to 30% in 1980 when real yields started to rise again.
Currently it's 130%. Unless we see unprecedented productivity gains we cannot afford high real yields and more likely will see a continuation
of yield suppression similar to the 1940-1980 period. During those decades there were a few times when real yields rose above 2.5% but all of them were short lived.
Statistics: Posted by yaun — Thu Apr 04, 2024 11:56 pm — Replies 2998 — Views 635117