Investing - Theory, News & General • International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Don't think that adding this to the Wiki is merited at this point. Per the OP, thread ostensibly set out to list arguments supporting US or Non-US. That is a laudable goal, but don't think it's appropriate to memorialize a conclusion based on one participant's views. Can't we agree that different conclusions may be drawn from the arguments at hand?

TBH, despite having defaulted to all-US my entire investing life, as I look at the Arguments supporting that position, I am not convinced it’s more likely than any other choice to out-perform…..

I'm not seeing how your comment about predicting outperformance has any relevance to the post you're responding to, which said nothing about that. It gives the impression that you're imagining someone said something they didn't say.

Nothing (that wasn’t already true) explains the recent divergence, except for government intervention starting in 2008.

Some people responded to your repeated inquiries about that. Sounds like you rejected their input for no reason.

It should also be pointed out that coming up with a definitive explanation for what happened during a certain period (which is the question you keep repeating, over and over again) has no clear relevance to the ostensible purpose of this thread as stated in the opening post.

And therefore defaulting to a neutral position (where at least I can diversify black swan risk) seems the only reasonable choice….

Reasonable for you. It hasn't been established that you know what's reasonable for anyone other than you.

Said differently, what does a newcomer to this thread need to understand to make a fully informed decision?

They (and not only newcomers) need to understand that nobody here has the authority to make decisions for others.

And that the OP went off on tangents unrelated to the stated purpose of the thread, and also ignored many responses.

And that making predictions about the future is not a prerequisite for any choice of AA. Many people don't predict.

This is why you were the wrong person to run this thread. Because all you've gotten out of 100+ pages of different opinions is that you were right all along.

I don't know who's right, and have never claimed that my way is the correct answer.

This really isn't that difficult:

Just answer my question above, that you deleted in your above response (I added it back for your convenience).

Well, at least Homer's response was a true statement.

Also, in my last post, I asked you some questions and you still haven't responded. Complaining that people don't answer your questions when you refuse to answer theirs is a bit rich.

It's just that nobody can explain why the US "IS" exceptional after 2008, but not before......Tell me what changed to drive the historic divergence, other than massive government intervention....

Again, you decided to deliberately ignore whatever answers you got for that, then keep asking the same question.

If someone could just answer this, we could add it to our list and be finished.... Or at least have a "fair" list of Arguments.

Again, there's nothing in the opening post that says its purpose is to explain what happened during a certain period.

But absent that answer, IMHO the only reasonable conclusion is to adopt a neutral allocation to diversify away Black Swans...

How can anyone in good faith not let the next newbie to this site in on this insight...?

"Good faith" is interesting. I highly recommend it.

And, regarding "the only reasonable conclusion", again, you mean for you.

But why are you trying to tell other people what the "only reasonable conclusion" is for their asset allocation? This is a bait-and-switch, as the opening post explicitly said that that's not the purpose of this thread:

To be clear, the intent of this thread is NOT to decide the appropriate balance between International versus US stock AA.

Statistics: Posted by HanSolo — Tue Apr 23, 2024 2:04 am — Replies 5656 — Views 1189407

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